1 Nov 2010

Lula has won this election (or Dilma Rousseff ?)

After the boom of the news, let’s do some analysis.

During her campaign, Dilma promised to continue with President Lula’s growth programme besides imposing her own style of government. This style is unknown and so, we - Brazilians - will know it during her administration.

The main reason Lula has got success in electing her pick, was to announce that she would keep up with the programme called “Bolsa Família”, a sort of financial aid given for people with low income or who do not have any. This money, made Lula very popular, mainly in the North and Northeast of Brazil - regions where Dilma had most of votes (see map below).

At first, Bolsa Família looked very important, since there are some regions where poverty and famine is still a problem and with this money, families could buy basic food. This programme made a huge success and, for sure, reduced starvation almost in all deprived regions. Nonetheless, as it has being part of PT (Workers Party) method of administration, this idea was diverted of its main aim and PT started distributing money even for people who have good incomes! This was viewed as a way of “buying votes”, since all policies towards money distribution were changed months before Lula’s second term.

Based on this, Dilma is elected.

In her victory speech, she said her first priority would be to lift 20 million Brazilians out of poverty.

"I reiterate my fundamental promise: the eradication of poverty," she said. "We must not rest while there are Brazilians going hungry."

As for José Serra, ex-governor of State of São Paulo and her opponent it this run off, it’s up to him to keep taking part in politics. For me, it would not be news if he run again for mayor of São Paulo, in 2012, position that he has already occupied before.

In my point of view, PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party) made a huge mistake by choosing the candidate to be the vice of Serra: the deputy Índio da Costa, 39 years old (seen below alongside José Serra).

With experience of only one term, Índio started attacking harshly Lula and Dilma, and since them, Serra who at the beginning of the campaign was leading the polls, was not able to keep there. Rather than choose an experienced politician, like the ex-governor of State of Paraná Álvaro Dias, PSDB tried a young and inexperienced guy and this formula was proven a failure.
I compare this choice as McCain and Sarah Palin during US Presidential elections in 2008. A competitive and experienced politician who pick as running mate an inexperienced chatterbox!

With this in mind, the President of PSDB Party, Senator Sérgio Guerra, has announced today that the next candidate to the Presidential election, in 2014, will be chosen by mid of 2012, already. This is to avoid making the mistake of choosing a candidate only this year, while PT had announced Dilma more than one year ago!

Dilma Rousseff will be sworn in on 1 January 2011.
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